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NEURAL STARK STRATEGY

Futures · Futures · Started Dec 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.1%
Max Drawdown
18.7%
Trades
186
Win Trades
68.3%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
42.9%

About this strategy

The strategy is looking at trends and specific levels of interest. The investment process is split between two processes short term trading (scalping) and position trading which can provide higher yields. We follow 30 financial and commodity markets in total on the software.

Commodities Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20231.21.2
20248.5-0.9-3.63.01.10.8-5.11.66.94.67.12.629.1
2025-0.94.73.31.4-0.1-14.15.9-2.12.5-16.70.00.0-17.4
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/14/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age35 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades186
# Profitable127
% Profitable68.3%
Avg trade duration7.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown18.7%
drawdown periodMay 06, 2025 - Oct 16, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)9.1%
Avg win$599
Avg loss$1,145

Ratios

W:L ratio1.13
Sharpe Ratio0.10
Sortino Ratio0.13
Calmar Ratio0.37

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life60.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-22.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity33.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.1%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss36.5%
Chance of 20% account loss9.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)800
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)463

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,145
Avg Win$599
# Winners127
Sum Trade PL (losers)$67,549
Sum Trade PL (winners)$76,017
Num Months Winners15
# Losers59
% Winners68.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table35

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)11396.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)189.93
Avg Trade Length7.90
Last Trade Ago379

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.10
Daily leverage (max)11.15

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.06
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades36.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.41
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.70
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df20
t1.36
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.50
Sortino ratio1.61
Upside Potential Ratio3.02
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms6
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error19
t(b)-0.23
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.32
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.13
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df20
t1.26
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.42
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio2.84
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms6
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error19
t(b)-0.24
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.14
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df474
t1.21
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio1.35
Upside Potential Ratio8.81
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms227
N negative terms248
N of observations475
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error473
t(b)-1.26
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.29
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.12
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df474
t1.11
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio1.22
Upside Potential Ratio8.63
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms227
N negative terms248
N of observations475
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error473
t(b)-1.24
p(b)0.89
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.19
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.13
df130
t-0.80
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio-1.34
Upside Potential Ratio5.52
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)-1.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)1.43
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-0.20
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.20
df130
t-0.85
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio-1.41
Upside Potential Ratio5.37
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.98
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms68
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)-1.19
p(b)0.57
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)1.50
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations475
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.09
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.71
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-358212320
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)163
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.51
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.78
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.30

Trading record

Placed 340 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@QO Z5short3Oct 16, 2025Oct 16, 2025($8,174)
@QM Z5long3Oct 8, 2025Oct 16, 2025($2,749)
@SB K6long1Oct 3, 2025Oct 16, 2025($803)
@QG X5long5Sep 15, 2025Oct 16, 2025$423
@MYM Z5short2Oct 16, 2025Oct 16, 2025$141
@QO Z5short1Oct 15, 2025Oct 15, 2025$442
@MYM Z5short4Sep 25, 2025Oct 13, 2025$760
@QM Z5long1Oct 3, 2025Oct 7, 2025$167
@MYM U5short4Aug 29, 2025Sep 25, 2025($1,133)
@QG V5long3Aug 27, 2025Sep 23, 2025$639
@QM Z5long1Sep 19, 2025Sep 23, 2025$142
@SB V5long1Jun 27, 2025Sep 19, 2025($702)
AUD/CAD long2Sep 2, 2025Sep 19, 2025$19
USD/CAD long2Sep 2, 2025Sep 19, 2025$1
@QM X5long1Sep 11, 2025Sep 16, 2025$992
@QM V5long3Aug 22, 2025Sep 15, 2025$1,039
@QG U5long3Jun 20, 2025Aug 26, 2025($5,499)
@QM V5long1Aug 8, 2025Aug 21, 2025($46)
@MYM U5short2Aug 15, 2025Aug 21, 2025$220
@QM V5long1Jul 24, 2025Jul 29, 2025$1,542
@QM Q5long6Jun 23, 2025Jul 21, 2025$4,165
QCL Q5long1Jun 24, 2025Jun 24, 2025$322
@QM Q5long4Jun 23, 2025Jun 23, 2025($8,190)
QCL Q5long1Jun 23, 2025Jun 23, 2025($8)
@MYM U5short2Jun 23, 2025Jun 23, 2025$309
@QM Q5long1Jun 23, 2025Jun 23, 2025$155
@QM Q5long1Jun 23, 2025Jun 23, 2025$330
@QM Q5long1Jun 20, 2025Jun 22, 2025$1,946
@QM Q5long1Jun 19, 2025Jun 19, 2025($187)
@MYM U5short2Jun 18, 2025Jun 18, 2025$421

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.