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Seeking Value maximum

Equity · Stocks · Started Jul 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.7%
Max Drawdown
50.8%
Trades
33
Win Trades
48.5%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
56.9%

About this strategy

My strategy has a small number of trades. Several weeks or several months may pass between the time you subscribe to my strategy and the time I make my next trade. For this reason, I encourage each of my subscribers to use the Join Trades in Progress (when you select this mode, you connect to previously opened trades of my strategy) in AutoTrade Setting.

The selection of shares of companies is carried out by on the basis of:

• Qualitative indicators:

- analysis of the company's environment in the industry and the economy as a whole (competitors, suppliers, buyers, substitute goods / services, government regulation);
- analysis of the company's competitive advantages (for example, brands, patents from the state, poorly regulated monopolistic companies);
- analysis of the company's value chain and the measures taken by the company to optimize it (vertical integration, etc.);
- analysis of the structure of the company's share capital (as a rule, the absence of a majority shareholder is an advantage).

• Quantitative indicators:

- coefficients of profitability;
- liquidity ratios;
- debt burden ratios;
- coefficients of capital intensity;
- to assess the real value of the company: discounting cash flows (income approach), value multipliers (comparative approach).

In addition to calculating and analyzing financial ratios and value multipliers (see the works of B. Graham and D. Dodd, A. Damodaran) I use strategic management (see the works of Michael Porter, A.A. Thompson and A.J. Strickland, H. Mintsberg , Philip Kotler), and also analyze the degree of influence of the company on the economic behavior of their customers using the hierarchy of human needs of Abraham Maslow and the branding pyramid of Jean-Noel Kapferer.

Non-hedged Equity Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20228.5-3.0-11.56.910.0-4.54.6
202313.12.40.1-2.4-5.712.02.9-4.70.4-4.22.816.334.6
20245.05.95.6-7.40.4-4.05.01.88.6-9.213.7-4.420.2
202514.5-5.2-2.3-1.811.00.8-9.84.85.8-13.31.2-1.11.2
2026-4.2-14.0-17.2-0.82.7-8.69.23.40.3-28.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/8/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age51 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades33
# Profitable16
% Profitable48.5%
Avg trade duration373.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown50.8%
drawdown periodJuly 23, 2025 - July 17, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)4.7%
Avg win$1,894
Avg loss$1,496

Ratios

W:L ratio1.40
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Sortino Ratio0.30
Calmar Ratio0.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.35
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life94.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-76.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity74.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.3%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss75.0%
Chance of 20% account loss47.5%
Chance of 30% account loss26.0%
Chance of 40% account loss9.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)319
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,496
Avg Win$1,894
# Winners16
Sum Trade PL (losers)$25,433
Sum Trade PL (winners)$30,301
Num Months Winners29
# Losers17
% Winners48.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct5399

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table51

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)537595.94
Avg Position Time (hrs)8959.93
Avg Trade Length373.30
Last Trade Ago167

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.24
Daily leverage (max)2.28

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.55
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.19
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-61.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.74
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.67
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.21
df40
t0.40
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.30
Upside Potential Ratio1.85
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms17
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error39
t(b)2.56
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.43
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean0.02
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df40
t0.15
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Sortino ratio0.11
Upside Potential Ratio1.61
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms17
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error39
t(b)2.30
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.55
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.10
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df903
t0.68
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.42
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio8.18
Upside part of mean1.49
Downside part of mean-1.40
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms475
N negative terms429
N of observations904
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error902
t(b)12.71
p(b)0
t(a)-0.10
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.06
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df903
t0.44
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.29
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio7.94
Upside part of mean1.47
Downside part of mean-1.41
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms475
N negative terms429
N of observations904
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error902
t(b)12.76
p(b)0
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.70
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.76
df130
t-1.25
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.02
Sortino ratio-2.46
Upside Potential Ratio6.30
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-2.49
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-0.70
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.76
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error129
t(b)0.96
p(b)0.45
t(a)-1.35
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.83
Jensen alpha (a)-0.76
Mean-0.78
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.97
df130
t-1.40
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.81
Sortino ratio-2.67
Upside Potential Ratio6.02
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-2.53
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.78
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.82
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error129
t(b)0.82
p(b)0.45
t(a)-1.48
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.91
Jensen alpha (a)-0.82
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations41
Minimum0.75
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.75
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations904
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.56
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.47
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high0.47
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.42
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.19
Median0.26
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-414813632
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)359
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.35
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.92
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.62
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.53
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-10.22

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
FDS long85Oct 27, 2025Mar 24, 2026($7,895)
SEIC long75May 26, 2025Oct 23, 2025($428)
ULTA long44Aug 29, 2024Oct 23, 2025$5,817
RS long68May 30, 2024Oct 23, 2025($2,038)
HD long33Nov 27, 2023Oct 23, 2025$832
TROW long109Jul 8, 2022Oct 23, 2025($1,138)
SEIC long86Jul 8, 2022May 26, 2025$1,283
HESAY long47Mar 6, 2024Nov 6, 2024($911)
NKE long162May 30, 2024Oct 11, 2024($293)
BURBY long865Mar 6, 2024Jul 17, 2024($5,144)
WIRE long163Jul 8, 2022May 7, 2024$13,025
PPRUY long342Jul 8, 2022Feb 16, 2024($541)
DFS long37Jul 8, 2022Nov 17, 2023($673)
CHRW long26Jan 11, 2023Nov 17, 2023($342)
EVR long12Jul 8, 2022Nov 17, 2023$609
JRSH long285Jul 8, 2022Jul 28, 2023($159)
CE long16Jul 8, 2022Jul 25, 2023$185
RS long22Jul 8, 2022Jul 19, 2023$2,277
EXPD long26Jul 8, 2022Jul 18, 2023$641
SSD long22Jan 11, 2023Jul 18, 2023$1,147
NGVT long24Jul 8, 2022Jul 17, 2023($319)
ADDDF long21Jul 8, 2022Jul 17, 2023$457
LX long261Jul 8, 2022Feb 9, 2023$267
LSTR long14Jul 8, 2022Nov 9, 2022$216
AFL long21Jul 8, 2022Aug 24, 2022$110
ALL long7Jul 8, 2022Aug 24, 2022($32)
FUPBY long42Jul 8, 2022Aug 11, 2022$24
JOUT long41Jul 8, 2022Aug 5, 2022$133
MLR long26Jul 8, 2022Aug 5, 2022($2)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.