Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Fusion MES

Futures · Started Dec 2023

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.3%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
545
Win Trades
50.8%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
35.3%

About this strategy

This trading system only trades Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (symbol: MES). This system trades long or short positions, operates with full automation.

The system is constructed around several independent strategies. Each of these strategies trades on MES separately. This system is designed based on a fusion of non-correlated trend-following and mean-reversion methods. Each strategy has its own stoploss. The advantage of using a variety of strategies lies in their collective ability to aggregate profits from each strategy while simultaneously mitigating overall drawdowns.

This system is "TOS-certified", (Trades-Own-Strategy Badge) meaning I autotrade it with real money and transparent results through the BrokerTransmit program.

I trade this system with a $200,000 investment on my Interactive Brokers IRA account. My trading is capped at 30 MES contracts. Because of the restriction of C2 platform, The initial account balance is set to $100,000 which is the maxium number can be set in C2.

To maintain prudent leverage usage, employ the specified formula for determining the AutoTrade Scaling setting.
AutoTrade Scaling = [Your Total Assets] / 200,000.
For example, with an asset of $40,000, the AutoTrade Scaling would be 40,000 / 200,000 = 20%. In this scenario, you would be able to trade up to 6 MES contracts (30 contracts * 20% = 6 contracts).

To utilize this trading system, a minimum investment of $20,000 is required, and it allows for trading up to a maximum of 3 MES contracts.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202315.315.3
202410.34.66.6-11.914.8-1.919.2-3.011.4-9.916.3-7.852.1
2025-6.7-11.1-9.6-24.442.8-0.40.9-0.31.6-0.03.9-1.1-15.3
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/6/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age34 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades545
# Profitable277
% Profitable50.8%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 08, 2025 - April 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)15.3%
Avg win$2,475
Avg loss$2,323

Ratios

W:L ratio1.10
Sharpe Ratio0.46
Sortino Ratio1.10
Calmar Ratio0.38

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life69.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-19.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)19.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity41.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss94.0%
Chance of 20% account loss94.0%
Chance of 30% account loss88.0%
Chance of 40% account loss83.5%
Chance of 50% account loss79.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)75.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)60.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)50.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)33.5%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?186626
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,323
Avg Win$2,475
# Winners277
Sum Trade PL (losers)$622,477
Sum Trade PL (winners)$685,661
Num Months Winners12
# Losers268
% Winners50.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table34

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1443.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)24.06
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago270

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)32.15
Daily leverage (max)17974.20

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.49
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades298.34
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.94
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.49
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.41
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.76
SD1.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df19
t0.83
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio1.63
Upside Potential Ratio2.86
Upside part of mean1.34
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD1.08
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms7
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.76
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.18
Covariance0.13
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.25
Mean Square Error0.91
DF error18
t(b)3.38
p(b)0.19
t(a)-0.32
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.25
Mean0.27
SD0.98
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df19
t0.35
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio1.54
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms7
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.98
Covariance0.11
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.57
Mean Square Error0.58
DF error18
t(b)3.65
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.90
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.57
VaR(95%)0.36
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.43
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
Mean0.86
SD1.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.73
df453
t0.96
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio1.35
Upside Potential Ratio5.84
Upside part of mean3.72
Downside part of mean-2.86
Upside SD0.99
Downside SD0.64
N nonnegative terms221
N negative terms233
N of observations454
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.86
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion1.17
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.76
Mean Square Error1.38
DF error452
t(b)1.23
p(b)0.11
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.52
Treynor index (mean / b)2.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.76
Mean0.25
SD1.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df453
t0.31
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio0.31
Upside Potential Ratio4.17
Upside part of mean3.40
Downside part of mean-3.14
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.82
N nonnegative terms221
N negative terms233
N of observations454
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion1.10
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error1.19
DF error452
t(b)2.29
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.72
Treynor index (mean / b)0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean1.94
SD2.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df130
t0.66
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.70
Sortino ratio1.79
Upside Potential Ratio5.74
Upside part of mean6.21
Downside part of mean-4.27
Upside SD1.77
Downside SD1.08
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion1.94
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion2.08
Covariance-0.01
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.03
Mean Square Error4.37
DF error129
t(b)-0.22
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.68
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.93
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.35
Jensen alpha (a)2.03
Mean0.08
SD1.93
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df130
t0.03
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.81
Sortino ratio0.06
Upside Potential Ratio3.63
Upside part of mean5.20
Downside part of mean-5.11
Upside SD1.28
Downside SD1.43
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.93
Covariance0.02
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error3.74
DF error129
t(b)0.46
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.03
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.87
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.45
Quartile 10.97
Median1.02
Quartile 31.09
Maximum2.36
Mean of quarter 10.82
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.38
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.61
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high2.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations454
Minimum0.45
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum2.12
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high25
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations131
Minimum0.45
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum2.12
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.68
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.68
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.68
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.06
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.86
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.86
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.81
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.81
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.81
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-408848576
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.80
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.54

Trading record

Placed 1799 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MES H6long8Dec 18, 2025Dec 18, 2025($690)
@MES H6short8Dec 18, 2025Dec 18, 2025($350)
@MES H6long8Dec 17, 2025Dec 18, 2025$630
@MES Z5long8Dec 16, 2025Dec 16, 2025$640
@MES H6short8Dec 16, 2025Dec 16, 2025($50)
@MES Z5short24Dec 15, 2025Dec 15, 2025($182)
@MES Z5short8Dec 15, 2025Dec 15, 2025$260
@MES Z5long8Dec 14, 2025Dec 15, 2025($70)
@MES Z5long8Dec 12, 2025Dec 12, 2025($1,530)
@MES Z5long8Dec 12, 2025Dec 12, 2025($1,040)
@MES Z5long8Dec 10, 2025Dec 10, 2025($1,610)
@MES Z5long8Dec 9, 2025Dec 10, 2025$350
@MES Z5long8Dec 9, 2025Dec 9, 2025$60
@MES Z5long8Dec 9, 2025Dec 9, 2025$430
@MES Z5long8Dec 8, 2025Dec 8, 2025($1,050)
@MES Z5long12Dec 5, 2025Dec 8, 2025$706
@MES Z5long8Dec 4, 2025Dec 5, 2025$250
@MES Z5long8Dec 3, 2025Dec 4, 2025$1,830
@MES Z5long8Dec 2, 2025Dec 2, 2025$230
@MES Z5long8Dec 1, 2025Dec 1, 2025($430)
@MES Z5long8Nov 30, 2025Nov 30, 2025$30
@MES Z5long8Nov 28, 2025Nov 28, 2025$470
@MES Z5long8Nov 25, 2025Nov 26, 2025$3,270
@MES Z5short8Nov 25, 2025Nov 25, 2025($280)
@MES Z5short8Nov 25, 2025Nov 25, 2025($970)
@MES Z5long8Nov 25, 2025Nov 25, 2025$60
@MES Z5long8Nov 24, 2025Nov 25, 2025($980)
@MES Z5short4Nov 21, 2025Nov 21, 2025$400
@MES Z5long16Nov 21, 2025Nov 21, 2025$5,211
@MES Z5short3Nov 21, 2025Nov 21, 2025$150

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.