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Alpha Pro Futures AGR

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-5.2%
Max Drawdown
52.0%
Trades
928
Win Trades
43.5%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
21.2%

Commodities Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20242.011.51.7-11.84.16.733.511.8-48.70.00.00.0-13.2
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/30/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age32 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades928
# Profitable404
% Profitable43.5%
Avg trade duration2.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown52.0%
drawdown periodAug 01, 2024 - Sept 20, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)-5.2%
Avg win$230
Avg loss$172

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Sortino Ratio-0.14
Calmar Ratio0.33

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life56.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-70.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-5.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity108.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss73.0%
Chance of 20% account loss45.0%
Chance of 30% account loss20.0%
Chance of 40% account loss2.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated79.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$172
Avg Win$230
# Winners404
Sum Trade PL (losers)$90,002
Sum Trade PL (winners)$93,044
Num Months Winners7
# Losers524
% Winners43.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table33

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)174.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.91
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago732

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.80
Daily leverage (max)35.33

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.03
Treynor Index-0.29

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-9.65
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.61
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats45.44
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats51.29
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.31
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.31
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df10
t0.48
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio1.93
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error9
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
Mean0.12
SD0.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df10
t0.17
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio1.38
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.67
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.49
DF error9
t(b)-0.09
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.18
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.32
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
Mean0.18
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df261
t0.46
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.42
Sortino ratio0.68
Upside Potential Ratio6.69
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-1.63
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms82
N negative terms180
N of observations262
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error260
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.48
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.98
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.10
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df261
t0.26
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio0.37
Upside Potential Ratio6.30
Upside part of mean1.78
Downside part of mean-1.67
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms82
N negative terms180
N of observations262
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error260
t(b)-0.15
p(b)0.56
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.77
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.79
df130
t-1.27
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio-2.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.91
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-1.74
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion-0.77
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.81
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error129
t(b)0.39
p(b)0.48
t(a)-1.31
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-16.76
Jensen alpha (a)-0.81
Mean-0.87
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.00
df130
t-1.42
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio-2.51
Upside Potential Ratio2.68
Upside part of mean0.93
Downside part of mean-1.79
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms120
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion-0.87
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.90
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error129
t(b)0.43
p(b)0.48
t(a)-1.46
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-16.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.90
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.61
Quartile 11
Median1.02
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.61
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.88
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.45
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations262
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low36
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high40
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.13
Median0.22
Quartile 30.30
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.39
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.42
Quartile 10.42
Median0.42
Quartile 30.42
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-426609344
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)50
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.49
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.87
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.69
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-10.02

Trading record

Placed 803 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MNQ Z4long2Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024($170)
@MES Z4short1Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024$43
@MYM Z4short1Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024($54)
@MES Z4short1Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024($121)
QMGC Z4long1Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024$74
@MNQ Z4short1Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024$79
@MNQ Z4short2Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024($369)
@MNQ Z4long2Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024($362)
@MYM Z4short1Sep 20, 2024Sep 20, 2024$24
QMGC Z4short2Sep 19, 2024Sep 20, 2024($388)
@MYM Z4long1Sep 19, 2024Sep 20, 2024($19)
@MES Z4short1Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024$52
@MES Z4short1Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024($121)
QMGC Z4long1Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024($72)
QMCL X4short3Sep 18, 2024Sep 19, 2024($326)
@MNQ Z4long2Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024($192)
@MNQ Z4long2Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024($335)
@MYM Z4short1Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024($125)
QMGC Z4short1Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024$22
QMGC Z4short1Sep 19, 2024Sep 19, 2024($261)
@MYM Z4short1Sep 18, 2024Sep 19, 2024($129)
@MNQ Z4short1Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024($5)
@MES Z4short1Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024$190
@MYM Z4short1Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024$66
@MNQ Z4short2Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024($136)
@MNQ Z4short2Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024($62)
QMCL X4short1Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024($13)
@MYM Z4short1Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024($143)
@MES Z4short1Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024($122)
@MNQ Z4short2Sep 18, 2024Sep 18, 2024($447)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.